My predictions regarding self-driving cars have been correct

I've just read the following article:

How self-driving cars got stuck in the slow lane

Article says:

I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than a human this year,” said Tesla chief executive, Elon Musk, in January.For anyone who follows Musk’s commentary, this might sound familiar. In 2020, he promised autonomous cars the same year, saying: “There are no fundamental challenges.” In 2019, he promised Teslas would be able to drive themselves by 2020 – converting into a fleet of 1m “robotaxis”. He has made similar predictions every yeargoing back to 2014.

Anyone with any sense wouldn’t take notice of anything Elon Musk says. I too started making predictions regarding autonomous cars back in 2014. But rather than saying autonomous cars are imminent, I suggested they’ll take over the world by 2060. The idea that they were about to take over the world within a few years always seemed to me to be ridiculous, although most commentators back in 2014 agreed with Elon Musk. Indeed, by 2018, I had become convinced that fully autonomous cars (i.e level 5 cars) will never be able to share the same lanes in roads with human drivers.

There’s the video of a car in FSD mode veering sharply into oncoming traffic, prompting the driver to swerve off the road into a field. The one that shows a car repeatedly attempting to turn on to train tracks and into pedestrians. Another that captures the driver struggling to regain control of the car after the system prompts him to take over.

Going back to 2017, I was leery of this claim about how safe autonomous cars were, and I hadn’t seen any of those videos!

There’s reason to believe that the videos that make their way online are some of the more flattering ones. Not only are the testers Tesla customers, but an army of super-fans acts as an extra deterrent to sharing anything negative. Any reports of FSD behaving badly can trigger a wave of outrage.

Yes, Musk fanboys. I’ve been attacked by someone saying look at what Musk has achieved in his life compared to myself. What a loser I am.  Who do I think I am, etc.  He seemed entirely indifferent to the fact I am mostly right and Musk is almost always wrong.

[I]t’s not just Tesla that has missed self-imposed autonomous driving deadlines. Cruise, Waymo, Toyota and Honda all said they would launch fully self-driving cars by 2020. Progress has been made, but not on the scale anticipated. What happened?

“Number one is that this stuff is harder than manufacturers realised,” says Matthew Avery, director of research at Thatcham Research.

Nothing happened, they were always preposterous predictions. It is a consequence of people's mistaken notion of what we human beings are (i.e essentially computers), and so it shouldn’t be that difficult to get computers to emulate and indeed surpass human behaviour, including the driving of cars. But computers are not conscious and never will be. They operate according to rules rather than any understanding. And generating rules to help navigate a real world environment that we encounter on roads in city centres will be incredibly hard.

Carmakers General Motors and Geely and AV company Mobileye have said people may be able to buy self-driving cars as early as 2024.

No, I’m afraid they won’t.